Day 53 of the Coronavirus in France
Day 2 of enforced containment
Today was the first day that we enjoyed some normal family time. I had to log out of social media for most of the day. It’s toxic on the web.
It’s also hard to not get stuck in trauma brain. Even when you want to think about anything else, new studies reveal new protocol every couple hours. And encouraging healthy people to stay inside is not easy with all the fake news, outdated news and denial.
Yes, you’ll be bored. Yes you’ll be lonely. Reading journals of those in China helped me prepare mentally in advance. So maybe my own ramblings will offer hope and clarity to someone out there.
We had a tea party and did a home workout routine and watched a movie together and played a board game.
As I watched my six year old daughter choosing which card to play I realized how board games and card games teach us statistics. Deciding which play to make and considering the probability of what your opponent has. I had the privilege of growing up in a family that played board games, and card games and learned to play poker with G’ma very young. I’ve never made the connection before between the card games and my love for statistics.
Today was a gorgeous day. Gazing out the window we see the cherry tree in full blossom, daffodils and jacynthe are dancing in the sun in the garden in front of our yard. It is painful to not be able to take advantage of the most beautiful season of the year. Tonight, there was a gorgeous sunset.
Tonight while putting my daughter to bed she wanted to read to me. She’s been sounding out the words for a while, but tonight her face lit up. “I’m reading. I actually read that whole chapter,” she exclaimed in delight. Something new sparked inside her and of course she didn’t want to put the book down. Bedtime stays the same. It is recommended that we go to sleep at our normal time, and we wake at our normal time. I admit I’ve been pushing bedtime every night. I’m a curator. At the end of the day I want to archive all the new released info.
We are still allowed to go for a run in the woods with a signed pass. Yes, I agree, it’s contradictory. My friend said today, “I’ve never seen so many people motivated to go jogging.” But I think if there is anything that we’ve learned from Italy it’s that just because it’s permitted doesn’t mean it’s beneficial.
In America my sister-in-law’s fitness club is offering classes by Zoom®
People all over the world are joining social media who never have before.
This was intended to be a journal of my life in self-isolation, but with people asking so many questions I do agree it’s helpful to pass on the breaking news of the day.
But don’t take my word for it click the links and read the scientific articles attached.
Remember all those people over 75 who didn’t get ventilators yesterday? Not fake news. Maybe they forgot to mention that a military relocation of those people would take place. Maybe they didn’t know. Only now after the general public are tucked safely in their homes, the army is able to mobilize their mobil hospitals to set up in the countryside. They look like army green tents. I’ll never see M*A*S*H the same way again. (source)
News from the science sector:
“On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.”
“When Wuhan thought it had 444 cases, it had 27 times more. When France thought it had 1,400 cases, it might well have tens of thousands”
“China’s fatality rate is now between 3.6% and 6.1% and remember, it’s not over yet.”
“Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.”
“The lengths at which it went to contain the virus are mind-boggling. For example, they had up to 1,800 teams of 5 people each tracking every infected person, everybody they got interacted with, then everybody those people interacted with, and isolating the bunch. That’s how they were able to contain the virus across a billion-people country.”
“The earlier you impose heavy measures, the less time you need to keep them, the easier it is to identify brewing cases, and the fewer people get infected.”
“Days later, they added: No, in fact, you need to close all businesses that aren’t crucial. So now we’re closing all commercial activities, offices, cafes and shops. Only transportation, pharmacies, groceries will remain open.”
“waiting one more day creates 40% more cases!” (source)
This is how virulent this contagion is. When you have 4 deaths in your area then there are 3,191 people who are contagious. (source)
A recent study found that the COVID-19 coronavirus can survive up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel. The researchers also found that this virus can hang out as droplets in the air for up to three hours before they fall. But most often they will fall more quickly. (source)
News from the Healthcare sector:
If doctors are wearing hazmat suits then it must be a powerful contagion. (source)
“The grim conclusion: For patients infected with the novel coronavirus who became critically ill with pneumonia and entered their ICU, the doctors recorded “high” numbers of fatalities. Of the 52 people included in the sample, 32 died in the 28-day span of the study, revealing a death rate of 61 percent. Most died within seven days of being admitted to the ICU.
For comparison, mortality rates generally ranging between 30 and 40 percent are observed for patients who are sickened by ordinary seasonal flu and are fighting pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome in ICUs.” (source)
“Misidentified scientifically, the pathogen forces the hospital to reinforce precautions and surveillance. Instead of two nurses and one orderly for every five patients in intensive care, the Covid requires two nurses for every three patients and three orderlies for every five patients. “We are redeploying surgical and multi-purpose medical resuscitation staff to the severe Covid patients,” says the neurologist. But that’s not going to be enough.”
“At last count Thursday, 56 AP-HP Healthcare workers were positive” (source)
Don’t be surprised if the statistics change quickly they’ve changed nearly every week up until this point. Every country has different reactions and different testing methods dynamically impacting the data.
We are living a real-life variation of the classic ethical thought experiment, “Would you sacrifice one life to save five?”
| Test as many as possible | Test only severe cases |
| The healthy wear a mask | Only the sick wear a mask |
| Track down and isolate everyone who was in contact with the confirmed case. | Do nothing |
| Complete lockdown after ≈25 deaths | Lockdown after ≈100 deaths |
| Zero revenue for five weeks | Strained /restricted revenues for five weeks |
| Stable number of confirmed cases daily | Cases double every two days |
| Average death rate 0.5%-5% | 40% more deaths (source) |
Which would you choose?
See what other countries around the world are choosing on today’s updated timeline (here).
The story continues in my Coronavirus log here.
Stephen Dawson